by Park Chan-Kyong
SEOUL, Oct 18, 2007 (AFP) - North Korea may face a new famine next year as floods and bad weather aggravate its already chronic food shortages, a leading expert warned Thursday.
Floods and storms, followed by outbreaks of blight and damage by insects, deprived the impoverished nation of some 10 percent of its autumn harvest this year, said Kwon Tae-Jin, who is research director of the Korea Rural Economic Institute.
"North Korea is likely to face very serious food shortages next year and barring very generous help from abroad, we may see something like the 1995-98 famine," Kwon told AFP.
That famine reportedly killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Kwon said the country needs at least 5.3 million tonnes of food to feed its 23 million population from now until next year's autumn harvest.
But its own food production is expected to come to only 3.9 million tonnes, leaving a shortfall of 1.4 million.
South Korea is the North's biggest aid provider, supplying it with 400,000 tonnes of food every year. Seoul is expected to increase this aid to 500,000 tonnes next year.
North Korea is thought to use part of its meagre foreign currency earnings to import 200,000-300,000 tonnes every year but must rely on outside help to plug the remaining gap, Kwon said.
Paul Risley, Asia spokesman for the World Food Programme (WFP) in Bangkok, said some food aid was sent directly to the North, including from China.
Nonetheless, there is a significant gap between the amount of food that is available and the amount that is actually required, Risley told AFP, citing UN figures.
"This is a very serious concern, and it's quite clear from most recent estimate of food commodities that are available... that the DPRK (North Korea) will once again this year face a very significant gap between the amount of cereal such as corn and rice available and the amount of food required for its population," he said.
He said the WFP provides a "relatively small amount of food assistance" to millions of the most vulnerable, including several hundred thousand victims of August floods.
Following those floods, Pyongyang gave the WFP approval to extend its food assitance to include many areas where workers were previously not allowed to operate, Risley said.
North Korea was already reliant on international aid to help make up a food shortfall of one million tonnes -- 20 percent of its needs -- even before the August rains.
ckp/km AFP 180331 GMT 10 07
Copyright (c) 2007 Agence France-Presse
Received by NewsEdge Insight: 10/17/2007 23:32:15